Cambridge, MA (PRWEB) June 23, 2009

Bio Economic Research Associates, or bio-era (http://www.bio-era.net), a leading independent research and advisory firm providing analysis on the future of the global bio economy, today announced the launch of a multi-client service to track the potential impacts of H1N1 pandemic influenza for service participants, markets and industries.

The service will provide independent, expert research and analysis on the on-going crisis, and the possible financial and business implications of the H1N1 influenza pandemic – both generally, and for the specific interests and markets of participating clients.

The service will provide:

Independent, expert analysis integrating the latest developments on the evolution of the disese event, public, media, and government perceptions of the degree of threat posed by the disease, and the reactions and responses – and the associated economic and business impacts
Scenarios for the evolution of pandemic influenza and the key implications for participating businesses, market participants, and investors.
Regular teleconferences with bio-era experts and participants to present and discuss the latest developments and bio-era analysis.
Occasional roundtables to share best practices
Under the leadership and direction of bio-era President, Stephen Aldrich, the service will deliver a steady stream of bio-era research and analysis from a distinguished expert faculty, as well as highly plausible scenarios for the evolution of the novel H1N1 pandemic, how government and public health agencies and institutions are responding, the implications for service participants – and how they can adapt.

Participants are expected to include companies with significant market exposure to trade and economic disruptions, investors, public health officials, researchers and analysts engaged in business planning, risk management, market analysis, and trading.

Novel H1N1 and the Risks of a Global Pandemic:

Now that the World Health Organization has declared the outbreak of novel variant H1N1 “swine” influenza to be a pandemic, the issue is “so what?” How will the spread of this pandemic influenza affect human societies and economies — even specific markets, industries, and companies?

We know from past experience with SARS and H5N1, and from many studies carried out over the past few years (see attached bio-era Senate Testimony), that pandemic influenza can have enormous consequences for global trade and travel, with extremely large economic impacts. Precisely because this is so, a systematic approach to developing an “early warning” system with respect to the evolution of the disease event – its current and future trajectory, the local and global implications, and the reactions these provoke – can provide enormous benefits and opportunities to those prepared to act.

Learning What to Watch

This service is designed to help stakeholders address the following questions:

What indicators should the business community be watching with respect to the unfolding H1N1 pandemic?
What specific actions (travel advisories, quarantines, travel restrictions, etc.) are governments and public health authorities initiating, and what should we expect going forward?
How are local outbreaks of novel H1N1 changing perceptions and the degree of fear generally? How are perceptions and fears driving the response to the disease?
How and when will fears and the responses they provoke impact regional and global economies and the businesses operating within and/or interconnected with these regions?
How should businesses and market participants adapt?
By delivering a scenarios framework and logic to bound plausible outcomes, and providing continuous, expert evaluation of new developments in a manner which directly relates back to the scenarios framework – referencing key signposts, and signaling important forks in the road — the service aims to improve commercial and business decision-making ahead of time – particularly in an environment likely to see a heightening of conflicting information, rumor, and fear.

To enroll in the service, or for more information, please visit http://www.bio-era.net or contact Stephen Aldrich or Grant Hastings at 617 876-2400.

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Attachments

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, Vocus PRW Holdings, LLC.
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Cambridge, MA (PRWEB) October 20, 2005

The avian influenza crisis has touched down in Europe, having landed on the wings of waterfowl in Romania. But the virus is also pushing a wave of media-driven fear ahead of it, creating panic buying of countermeasures, and foreshadowing more serious impacts for economies and public health efforts in the weeks and months ahead. In response, Bio Economic Research Associates (bio-eraTM) invites registration to a special one-hour web teleconference, “Thinking Ahead: Anticipating the Future Economic Impacts of H5N1 Avian Influenza” to be held Tuesday, November 1st, 2005 at 11:00 am edst.

The teleconference will feature a presentation by bio-era Managing Director for Research, James Newcomb, followed by invited comments and moderated discussion with noted guest experts, Dr. Robert Shapiro, former Undersecretary of Commerce for Economic Affairs in the Clinton administration, Dr. Sherry Cooper, Global Investment Strategist for the Bank of Montreal, Dr. Stephen Martin, Global Influenza Program, WHO, and Dr. Robert Cook, VP, Veterinary Services, Wildlife Conservation Society. Recent economic developments of note around H5N1 avian influenza include:

Concerns and fears about a possible influenza pandemic are already driving Westerners toward stockpiling the available countermeasures: from the antiviral drugs TamifluTM and RelenzaTM, to experimental vaccines, to sanitary masks and wipes. Governments, large private corporations, and individuals mostly in Western countries have made commitments or purchases totaling at least $ 2.3 billion to stockpile oseltamivir (Tamiflu)—an antiviral drug produced by pharmaceutical giant Roche – which is of uncertain effectiveness against an as-yet-to-emerge pandemic virus.

Meanwhile, months after they made their first appeal, the Food and Agriculture (FAO), World Health (WHO) and Animal Health (OIE) Organizations of the UN have only been able to raise 30% of the $ 100 Million US that is desperately needed in SE Asian countries like Vietnam (annual per capita healthcare spending equals about $ 21.00 US per year) to strengthen H5N1 regional surveillance and response.

Significant commitments have also been made to manufacturers of flu vaccines to create vaccines effective against H5N1 variants, but it is not known whether the vaccines being developed now would be effective against the influenza strains that might emerge.

New “DNA vaccines” offer an alternative to conventional production technologies, and could speed the vaccine industry’s ability to respond, but these technologies are not yet approved by FDA.

H5N1 avian influenza causes severely virulent disease primarily in poultry and wild birds. As a disease of poultry, it has already caused tens of billions of dollars in damage to affected countries in Asia. More than 150 million chickens and ducks have been destroyed by the disease to date, and affected countries have been saddled with the additional burdens imposed by poultry trade embargoes, and the public health costs of responding to the disease, which can be contracted by humans who come in contact with infected birds or their by-products. So far, the virus has infected at least 123 people, killing about half of them. There is also a real, but at this point only theoretical, possibility that H5N1 could evolve the ability to transmit easily from person to person. No one knows for certain if, or when, this might happen.

If a highly virulent human influenza pandemic does emerge, it is virtually certain to be the most devastating social and economic event of our lifetimes.

First, and in many ways foremost among the consequences, will be a wave of fear driven decision-making that will spread around the world much faster than the disease itself, and will have huge but very poorly understood or anticipated consequences.

Even if the disease never evolves to become a human pandemic, it is certain to create fear driven economic reactions and trade disruptions, as it spreads globally in birds, sparking local poultry epidemics, and sporadic human infections and death. This bio-era teleconference will present the firms latest analysis of the economic impacts of Avian influenza (H5N1), including the economic burdens that could be imposed by the animal disease, and some of the potential impacts to consider should the current outbreak develop into a global influenza pandemic.

“We’ve been looking at how things might unfold under two different but highly plausible scenarios for the evolution of the outbreak,” said Stephen Aldrich, President of bio-era. “One in which things keep going pretty much as they have been—a drawn out spread of the virus globally, with occasional outbreaks in poultry and wildlife, and a slow but steady increase in the number of human infections and deaths.” “And another scenario, in which you get the outbreak of efficiently transmitting human-to-human disease in rural Indonesia, spreading into Jakarta, and from there around the world—all within about six months.”

“We’re convening the call to present and talk about these two possibilities with some noteworthy economic experts, and to discuss the early and potentially highly damaging wave of fear driven decision-making that seems destined to precede the impacts of the disease itself.”

The teleconference is a part of bio-era’s recently launched service “Thinking Ahead: Anticipating Early Impacts of an Avian Influenza Pandemic”, designed to support business and investment planning efforts in advance of a possible influenza pandemic. To register for the web teleconference, please visit http://www.bio-era.net/events/event_form.html. or to enroll in the bio-era service, please visit http://www.bio-era.net or contact Steve Aldrich at 617 876-2400.

Bio Economic Research Associates (bio-era™) is a leading provider of independent research and advisory services on the emerging bio economy. Bio – era’s mission is to help decision-makers understand and respond to the risks and opportunities arising from the economic and societal impacts of human-induced changes to biological systems. The firm’s practice areas include biosecurity, bioenergy, and biotechnology.

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©Copyright 1997-

, Vocus PRW Holdings, LLC.
Vocus, PRWeb, and Publicity Wire are trademarks or registered trademarks of Vocus, Inc. or Vocus PRW Holdings, LLC.

Plan Ahead to Avoid the Legal Problems of Bird Flu

Any event that holds the potential of causing millions of deaths obviously holds the potential of causing millions of lawsuits.

A bird flu pandemic would be a disaster on every front. If one does happen, it’s likely that the survivors will look for someone to blame — someone to pay out a lot of money. For compensation of the loss of loved ones. To make up for losses of jobs and businesses.

That’s the new American way.

A bird flu pandemic would likely qualify as a force majeure — an act of God (or the Devil) that nullifies contracts.

It’s also possible that post-pandemic courts could determine that, given the enormous amount of publicity given to bird flu in this period, that all responsible people should have prepared for the eventuality of a pandemic.

It’s also possible that so many lawyers and judges will succumb to bird flu and so much wealth will have been wiped out that the government will declare some kind of blanket “we all suffered, now let’s just rebuild” amnesty on all bird flu lawsuits.

But don’t count on it. It’s better to be prepared.

After all — given the enormous amount of media attention given to bird flu, all organizations and individuals and families should be planning for a pandemic.

Governments and politicians around the world understand this. That’s why everybody from President Bush to Zambia is coming up with pandemic action plans, stockpiling Tamiflu, increasing surveillance of sick chickens and people, attending international conferences and so on.

That is why Secretary of Health and Human Services Michael Leavitt is holding meetings in every state and telling everybody who’ll listen: Don’t count on the federal government. We’re doing what we can, but we don’t have the resources to rescue every city and town in the United States.”

They understand the “CYA” Principle.

1. Build a cash reserve to get you through bad times.

This applies to families, businesses, non-profits and governments. Bird flu will not be business as usual. A bird flu pandemic will cause enormous economic problems as well much loss of life.

2. What would be the role of your organization during a bird flu pandemic?

If you’re a hospital, you’ll play a crucial role.

If you own a small bake shop, you may as well close down for the duration and stay at home — isolated from the virus.

Or, perhaps, you could contribute your cakes to the Meals on Wheels distributing food to families confined to their houses.

(Actually, it’s nutritional idiocy to eat sugar and white flour when you need to keep your immune system strong, but I’m sure most people will ignore this, even while they’re dying of bird flu.)

However, you’ll still need to make plans to compensate your employees for the down time and to secure your business against looters.

Don’t be so sure you have no role to play. If you own a small bicycle shop when there’s a gasoline shortage, you may have do a tremendous business helping people get around without a car.

3. How can you perform your most important functions with a greatly reduced staff?

It’s estimated that a pandemic could mean up to 40% absenteeism because employees are dead, sick or caring for sick family members. (Personally, I think that in an all-out pandemic 40% would be an optimistic figure, but that’s just me.)

For instance a city government could transfer everybody in the marriage license department to administrative jobs in the police department, to keep more police on the streets to maintain law and order.

4. What measures can you take to prevent the spread of the virus within your organization?

Every employee who feels sick or who has a sick family member should get paid leave — and stay home. No if, ands or buts. Nobody is so valuable that their work justifies risking the lives of everybody else — yet every such employee could transmit the virus to other employees or customers, even if they feel fine. But the business should pay the wages for all regularly scheduled work times, to prevent employees from feeling forced to work due to the need to pay bills.

As much as possible, conduct business by telephone.

Provide masks, germicidal lotions, alcohol wipes to employees. Give them as much physical space or isolation as possible. Keep the physical premises clean and disinfected. Encourage employees to wash their hands frequently.

Sick customers could be a special problem. If you sell something they need, do your best to accomodate them with as little exposure to your employees or other customers as possible. Maybe they would wait outside your door while an employee put their items in a bag for them.

Failure to provide a safe work environment could result in OSHA sanctions and worker lawsuits.

5. Medical facilities will have their own special requirements and liabilities.

I can’t replace the advice of lawyers who are specialists in this area.

I do suggest that at a minimum, you figure out how to physically separate the bird flu area of your hospital — and do not allow any contact between the two. Even doctors should stay on one side or the other.

If you can control the air flow so that no air from the bird flu area can seep into the rest of the hospital, so much the better.

Also, educate all your employees — even some doctors need this, unfortunately — on the need to thoroughly disinfect their hands between patients. Provide a germicidal hand lotion. Make it a requirement they use after completing work on every patient that they see.

As a general rule — protect the lives of yourself and your family, your employees and your customers above all else. Take proactive steps to handle the threat of a bird flu pandemic.

Where the function of your organization is necessary for health and safety — take all necessary proactive steps to perform your function . . . which don’t risk lives and safety.

You will probably take a financial hit. That’s why my first piece of advice was to put aside as much cash as possible in preparation for the extra expenses a pandemic will impose.

Remember that it’s cheaper in the long run to pay for an employee’s pandemic sick leave and to provide employees on duty with germicidal hand lotions — than to pay for a post-pandemic lawsuit.

There’s no such thing as a vaccine that will give you total immunity from a pandemic of lawsuits. But bird flu will decimate the ranks of trial lawyers along with everyone else. Those left alive will most likely go first for the easy targets — the many businesses who made no pandemic preparations.

If you’ve maintained good relations with employees and customers by looking out first of all for their health and safety, you aren’t immune, but you’ve considerably reduced your exposure to catching the bird flu lawsuit virus.